Market Analysis & Pricing Strategy

Prepared for Bud Purchase
Analysis Date: Feb 10, 2026
Total Listings Analyzed: 44
Subject Property Specification
9112 Frosty Morning Ave
House SqFt 3,866
Lot SqFt (Acres) 16,553 (0.38)
Bed / Bath 4 / 3 (2 Full, 1 Half)
Year Built 2003
Garage 3 Car (800 SqFt)
Pool / Spa Yes (Heated)
Subdivision Lone Mtn Classics
Stories 2 Story

Recommended List Price

$1,225,000

Positioning: "The Value Choice in a Luxury Enclave"

Neighborhood Lift

The data shows immediate neighbors selling for $2.6M - $3.6M (see Cameron Brook & Stange Ave). While these are newer builds, they drastically elevate the land value and prestige of the area. We are leveraging this "halo effect."

Pending Evidence

4663 Creeping Fig Ct (Listing #14) is currently Under Contract at $1,250,000. This proves buyers are active in the $1.2M+ range for this specific era/style of home, validation for aiming higher than the $1.16M sold comp.
Search Boundaries Definition

1. Active Listings (The Competition)

Note the massive price gap between the "New Luxury" ($1.4M+) and the sub-$1M inventory. We fit right in the middle.

# Address House SqFt Lot SqFt Yr Blt List Price $/SqFt DOM Notes
14318 Cameron Brook Ct4,94118,2952025$3,656,340$740New Luxury Comp
24337 Cameron Brook Ct4,56918,7312025$3,367,634$737New Luxury Comp
34631 Amazing View St4,1108,7122019$1,699,950$413Modern Build
44420 N Bonita Vista St4,15521,3442018$1,450,000$348
59585 W Lone Mountain Rd4,03020,9092004$1,399,000$347Key Competitor
64100 Highland Castle Ct4,94614,8102000$1,095,000$221Large SqFt/Lower Finish
74691 N Tee Pee Ln4,84021,7801993$999,950$206Older Vintage
84785 N Grand Canyon Dr3,30920,0381994$988,888$298
94024 Mansion Hall Ct4,74313,9392000$985,000$207Basement?
104529 Eagle Nest Peak St3,5758,7122018$929,500$260Smaller
114631 Eagle Nest Peak St3,5756,9702018$815,000$227Smaller

2. Under Contract (Market Velocity)

Listing #14 is our primary justification for the $1.225M target.

# Status Address House SqFt Lot SqFt List Price $/SqFt DOM Notes
12Pending8717 Kingship Ct4,94620,038$1,750,000$353
13Pending4638 Evan Ridge Ct3,87820,909$1,599,900$412Strong $/SqFt
14Pending4663 Creeping Fig Ct3,99021,780$1,250,000$313Direct Price Support
15Pending4727 El Presidente Dr3,08414,810$865,000$280Smaller/Older
16Pending4326 Micahs Canyon Ct4,59618,731$1,235,000$268Solid Support
17Pending4648 Plum Button St3,5756,098$870,000$243

3. Sold Listings (Historical Proof)

# Address House SqFt Lot SqFt Yr Blt Sold Price Close Date DOM Notes
184317 Cameron Brook Ct3,81020,9092025$2,857,49911/19/25168New Build
199390 Stange Ave3,45189,7341996$2,600,00012/17/2566Huge Lot/Custom
204070 N Tee Pee Ln3,92933,9772017$2,325,00011/26/25163
214024 Desert Trace Ct4,50511,3262019$2,085,00012/5/25166
224505 Amazing View St4,0158,2762019$1,250,00010/13/2528
238909 Mount Hood Ct3,86614,8102003$1,160,00010/14/2520Model Match Baseline
244736 Barcelona Ridge Ct4,19019,6022004$1,150,00011/12/258
259520 Desert Crest Ct3,23420,4731991$978,0009/5/2511
264591 N Chieftain St3,37721,7801990$950,0009/29/2523
274514 Blue Mesa Way3,47529,1851998$924,00012/10/2535
284612 Plum Button St3,4776,0982019$855,00012/29/25135
294555 N Fort Apache Rd3,34120,4731994$820,0001/9/2691
304624 Leon De Oro Dr3,38513,5042005$820,00012/15/2573
314001 Turquoise Falls St3,21910,4542018$769,0001/15/2692
324673 El Presidente Dr4,51319,1662004$700,00010/23/2544Fixer/Distressed?
3310421 Snowdon Flat Ct3,6106,5342002$650,00011/19/254
3410428 Snowdon Flat Ct3,3488,7122002$585,00011/6/2531
354501 Orange Heights St3,1856,0982003$540,0008/29/2528

4. Expired Listings (Cautionary Tales)

These homes failed to sell. Note #38: A model match that failed at $1.14M. Our higher price MUST be justified by superior condition/upgrades.

# Address House SqFt Lot SqFt List Price $/SqFt DOM Notes
364420 N Bonita Vista St4,15521,344$1,440,000$346
374798 Luna Ridge Ct4,12015,246$1,295,900$314
384200 Scott Peak Ct3,86615,682$1,140,000$294Model Match Expired
394554 Blue Mesa Way3,69420,038$1,099,000$297
404554 Blue Mesa Way3,69420,038$950,000$257Relisted lower?
414514 Blue Mesa Way3,47529,185$925,000$266
424722 Blue Mesa Way3,04319,166$900,000$295
434021 Mountain Trek St3,40216,117$775,000$227
444243 Sago Lily St2,9463,920$628,700$213